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Iowa - The Aftermath
By Chuck | January 5, 2008
Republicans:
Huckabee took Iowa, and that was no surprise to anyone that pays attention. Iowa love Jesus, Huckabee loves Jesus… it was an easy choice. According to the NYT voter breakdown You’ll see a few factors that tilted the table directly to Huckabee:
Political philosophy:
45% Very conservative
43% Somewhat conservative
Would describe themselves as Born-again or evangelical Christian:
60%
Could there have been a more perfect match then Huckabee for those numbers?
It should be interesting to watch these candidates pander to the independent New Hampshire crowd. We have already seen Huckabee drop all references to abortion and gay marriage from his initial speeches in New Hampshire. Those two topics were foundations of his blabbering in Iowa. Even with retooling his speeches do I think he can win in New Hampshire?
No. Not a fucking chance. I’m giving this one to McCain. Why? The voters in New Hampshire aren’t looking for Captain Jesus to lead the country, they are looking for someone a bit less, how do I put this nicely, less fucking crazy. I’m not saying that McCain isn’t crazy, it is just a different crazy, a less Jesus crazy.
Why not any of the others? Well, let’s take a look at them:
Romney:
Romney is too fake, too much a part of the Republican establishment to survive the backlash we are currently seeing in both parties. He is really the Republican version of John Edwards. I have a feeling his well oiled, well funded war machine is to obvious for everyone. Every time you see him speak it feels like you are getting hit over the head with a giant mallet that has “I have more money then you” written down the side of it. He would have been great in the ’80’s.
Thompson:
I don’t see Thompson as being a viable candidate right now. He may be able to reboot his campaign and save that but I don’t think it can happen in time for the NH primary. Plus he is a boring speaker. He might be able to get a few votes from the old folks homes because his speeches help them get to bed at night but I doubt that will do well with the rest of the country. Well, maybe the insomniacs.
Giuliani:
Rudy showed he is all hype by pulling a whopping 4%. He may do a little better in New Hampshire but I don’t think anyone actually likes him. Honestly he should have dropped out after that 4% but he is just too damn stubborn.
Paul:
Ron Paul’s Band of Fools cry foul over 10% in Iowa (Link:Idiots Ahoy!) even though he beat Rudy and Duncan Hunter. Still, I consider 10% to be a strong showing from this knucklehead. He could really go either way in New Hampshire. The independents there could either like his anti-big government stance or hate his anti-choice, anti-gay rights bullshit. Hopefully the voters there will see him for what he is, another Texas Republican.
Hunter:
Who? Oh, that guy. Seriously, drop out of the race now and start dealing used cars.
Democrats:
First some stats:
57% First-time Iowa caucusgoers
52% Can bring about needed change
With stats like that it only makes sense that Obama would take Iowa. I think that this race is really cut and dry currently. Obama, Clinton, Edwards. Everyone else is done. Pack up your things and follow Biden and Dodd out the door marked exit. Actually, wait, Richardson, get back here. You can stay. I think seeing the four of you battle it out will be more amusing then just three. Gravel and Kucinich need to check out though. More state delegates went with “Uncommitted”(3) then Dodd(1), Gravel(0) and Kucinich(0) combined. How bad of a showing do you need to get 0 delegates? Well, Dodd got 0% and still got one delegate. So logic dictates that you have to do worse then 0%. Damn.
So, how will New Hampshire play out for the Democrats? Honestly, I see it about the same. Obama and Richardson will get a little more, Clinton and Edwards a little less. Do you see the parallel between the Republican race and the Democratic race? I do. The candidates that look, talk, and act less like career politicians are going to take this one home.
