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Could Cellphones Change the Game?
By Chuck | October 8, 2008
This is just an idea I have been kicking around for some time so bear with me as I flesh it out.
Pollsters do not call cellphones at all. How many voters are they missing due to that? Exit polls in ‘04 showed that only 7% of voters lived in cell phone only households so the impact would be small. Especially when broken down state by state. How much has that number changed in 4 years?
According to Pew Research the percentage of Americans between 18-24 that can only be reached by cell phones is 30.6. while the percentage of all adults that fit that bill is 14.5.
I really need more data to really make any significant predictions based on this, preferably something broken down state by state, but just going by this one set of numbers you can form a basic idea.
If 30.6% of 18-24 yearolds cannot be polled there is a good chuck of data the normal polling methods are missing. Now, we know not all of them are voters but we do see a trend in that age group to lean heavily toward Obama and a huge spike in voter registrations.
What can we infer from this? Whatever conclusion you come to doesn’t look good for McCain.
Topics: Chuck, Politics | 1 Comment »
October 8th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
of interest
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html