Politics
« Previous Entries Next Entries »The Bradley Effect versus the JFK effect
Thursday, October 30th, 2008A lot has been made of this lately.
For those who hear the term and don’t understand, a brief history lesson: Back in 1982 the mayor of LA, the aforementioned Bradley, ran for governor of California. He was ahead in the polls and appeared poised to become the first African-American governor of the state.
And then he lost.
The theory: people told pollsters they planned to vote for him, but ultimately decided they were not comfortable doing so when in the privacy of the voting booth, presumably because of race.
So now, obviously, everyone is wondering if it will happen again.
Me, I don’t think so. If anything, we may see the reverse of it- something I’ll get into in a bit. 1982 was a LONG time ago. My sister was born that year… she’s a married accountant now! In the many years since we’ve seen some big changes in the country. We’ve seen an African-American on the supreme court, we’ve seen numerous African Americans in congress and as governors. We’ve seen not one but two African American secretaries of state- under a republican administration, no less! We’re not a perfect nation yet, but we’re not the nation we were under Ronald Regan’s first term by any stretch.
And really… if the Bradley effect was in play we would have seen it in the primaries. Or in any number of other recent races involving candidates of different races. However, the polls in the primaries were no more or less accurate than polls in previous years. Nor were polls in, for instance, MA when Patrick won his seat. If anything the polls underestimated Obama again and again, due to the youth vote being weighted based on turnouts in 2004 and not on current levels of registration. I live in a hipster neighborhood. I can assure you, kids these days love their fucked up asymmetrical haircuts, ironic shirts, and Barack Obama.
What I think we will see is a reverse of the Bradley effect. I’ll call this the JFK effect. Back in the dark ages when the earth was a molten ball of rock and JFK was running for president pollsters heard “well, yeah, I support him, but I don’t think America will elect a Catholic” again and again. It’s the “I’m not a bigot, but my neighbors are” theory. We LOVE to think we’re all sooo much more enlightened than our fellow citizens. I’m in NY, we fucking revel in that shit. Everyone’s an ignorant redneck but us.
So let’s look at North Carolina. Solid red state. Red for years. Obama was polling at about tied, and it was a nightmare for the GOP. But it looks like things are way worse than they even expected… since exit polling and registration records of people who have voted early show a ridiculous margin favoring the Democrat side. In some polls as much as 20+%. And, there’s really no historical backing to say it’ll switch around. If anything, history says it will only split further since early voting in most states, NC included, generally favors the GOP.
So what the fuck happened? Well, first off we have what may turn out to be the hallmark of this race: polls under-representing the African American and youth vote, by basing their weighting on 2004 turnouts.
And then we have my JFK effect. People in “red states” not openly supporting Obama, not calling the local office to get involved, not putting out a lawn sign or a sticker on their car, not saying a peep… because they assume their neighbors are die hard GOP supporters and don’t want to be the freak of the block. Secret, guilty closed door democrats, never realizing half the street may be in the same boat. They’re not a racist, they support Obama, but they won’t say a word to a pollster or anyone else since they figure their racist neighbors will never understand it. How many times, while canvassing, have has someone heard “you won’t find any Obama supporters around here!” at one house, and smiled because the previous three houses all promised he had long since won their vote? That’s the big joke on the streets this election, and it’s being repeated by people in nearly every state.
America isn’t ready for a Catholic president has become America isn’t ready for an African American president. People then assigned prejudices to their neighbors that turned out to be nonexistent, and I suspect we’re all doing it again. It’s 2008, let’s give each other some credit for a change, and not assume the worst of people.
Shit, it’s halloween in half an hour. Here’s a little something to crank up the aww factor, courtesy of Yes We Can (Hold Babies).
exciting tales of daring, adventure, and calling strangers on the phone to pester them about voting!
Tuesday, October 28th, 2008I pointed out to Chuck that the vagina-owning portion of society was vastly underrepresented on this blog. And he gave me powers. Political powers.
So, here I am. A woman. Kinda like Sarah Palin, only I have a pretty firm grip on the basics of the English language. Oh, and I know the world’s not just six thousand years old. And I know why we study fruit flies. And, I’m not pure evil. So maybe I’m not like Palin.
I can see a forign country from my house, though. (if I climbed on the roof)
I figured for my first post I would relate some of the more interesting moments of the election season, as an Obama volunteer.
Actually having the chance to travel to PA was amazing. If you’re into politics, and a blue state resident, take the time to hit the streets in a swing state. Words can’t even express how rewarding it is.
I remember one man who just asked questions for an hour. Foreign policy, health care, he wanted to know where Obama stood on everything. I really think, after shaking his hand, and leaving his porch, he had gone from a fence sitter to an Obama supporter.
During the primaries we knocked on a door and an elderly woman answered, she had to be at least 90. She said “oh, you want to speak to my daughter, it’s her house.” Well, it turns out they were both already Obama supporters. And then they called the granddaughter over. She was voting for the first time, and asked for a pin. I realized I was standing there with three generations, the oldest most likely born before women could even vote in the US. It was a very humbling experience.
In Erie my friend and I said “send us to poor people and young people.” What do I know of the worries of the rich? Capital gains taxes? Inheritance tax? I drive a 12 year old economy car! I know what it’s like to worry about paying bills, and not have health insurance. Send me where people have the same worries.
So, they did. We were assigned a local to travel with us (always go in groups, the world can be a dangerous place), who was clearly not comfortable with the neighborhood. Me, I didn’t care. It reminded me of the west side here in Buffalo. Door to door to door, finding one Obama supporter after another. One person asking for a registration form after another. And not just that- people asking for yard signs, pins, and how to get involved. I volunteered for Kerry. I volunteered for Dean. I volunteered for Gore. I have NEVER had someone corner me while walking to ask where they could sign up to help. On several houses we saw home-made signs in the windows, but no one home. We left them handwritten notes of the campaign office address, saying “come on by to help out, or just to get a yard sign!” More than a few took us up on the offer.
More than one African-American asked us for a pin or sign for their child for a memento. One woman said “I never thought I’d see the day. But now, when I say he can grow up to do anything, he believes me.” I admit, after hearing that I cried.
And then, well, there’s the people who just confound you. I’ve called to the south a lot- Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina. Most people are polite. A few were flat out racist, and it’s not tough to hang up on them. But one guy in West Virginia just floored me. “I never thought I’d be voting for a [here he dropped the n-bomb], but goddamnit, that McCain will leave me bankrupt. I can’t live like this for four more years!”
How on earth do you respond to that?
I went with “… um…. well…. uh…. yeah, it’s true, a vote for McCain would be a vote for four more years of the Bush policies. On behalf of Senator Obama I thank you for your support. thankyouforyourtimehaveagooodevening *click*”
And then I thought… McCain doesn’t even have a grip on the racist vote anymore. Wow.
(drunken results watching at my house tuesday!)
Could Cellphones Change the Game?
Wednesday, October 8th, 2008This is just an idea I have been kicking around for some time so bear with me as I flesh it out.
Pollsters do not call cellphones at all. How many voters are they missing due to that? Exit polls in ‘04 showed that only 7% of voters lived in cell phone only households so the impact would be small. Especially when broken down state by state. How much has that number changed in 4 years?
According to Pew Research the percentage of Americans between 18-24 that can only be reached by cell phones is 30.6. while the percentage of all adults that fit that bill is 14.5.
I really need more data to really make any significant predictions based on this, preferably something broken down state by state, but just going by this one set of numbers you can form a basic idea.
If 30.6% of 18-24 yearolds cannot be polled there is a good chuck of data the normal polling methods are missing. Now, we know not all of them are voters but we do see a trend in that age group to lean heavily toward Obama and a huge spike in voter registrations.
What can we infer from this? Whatever conclusion you come to doesn’t look good for McCain.
Tonight! One Night Only!
Thursday, October 2nd, 2008Watch Sarah Palin get destroyed by Senator Joe Biden!
I have been looking forward to this debate since Palin was announced for the job. Who else is excited to watch what I am predicting will be a glorious crash and burn?
Palin gave McCain a giant bump when she was chosen but one she started opening her mouth the poll number went directly into the tank. Last Gallup poll shows Obama at +5 nationally. FiveThirtyEight.com currently has Obama at +6 nationally. Things look even better when broken up state-by-state. Obama leads McCain 250 to 163 electoral votes with 125 still in the toss-up column. Out of those toss up states Obama has a slight lead in most of them, including Ohio and Florida, for another possible 79 electoral votes.
I predict that the debate tonight will only make the McCain campaign sink even further into this electoral vortex that seems to be directly caused by Palin.
McCain’s Gimmick of Choice: Sarah Palin
Friday, August 29th, 2008In an attempt to pull fence sitting Clinton supporters, Christian extremists and the three electoral votes from Alaska to his side McCain has announced that Sarah Palin (Gov. Alaska) is his pick for VP. I wonder if she knows how many houses she owns?
Well, this should kill McCain’s experience based attacks on Obama. She has been Governor for less than two years and before that a stint as the part-time mayor of a village of 6,000. Her education consists of a bachelor’s degree in journalism with a minor in polisci. Oh, and former Ms. Alaska runner up! McCain is trying to tell me that she is ready to lead this county when he shuffles off to the underground old folks home but Obama isn’t?
From her extraordinarily short record all I can tell about her is that she is anti-choice (member of the anti-choice group called Feminists for Life.), anti-gay rights and all for drilling in ANWR.
Remember when McCain was shitting his bed over Obama only visiting Iraq once? Well, Palin has never been there. Not once. Good work on undermining your own attacks.
I really would like to see how this effects the polls in Alaska, a normally red state that is currently in the toss-up column with Obama leading by 3 points according to Pollster.com.
Did I mention she is currently under ethics investigation for abuse of power? Alaska seems to be a hotbed of this sort of shit.
With McCain answering every attack on him with his “Noun, verb, P.O.W.” bullshit I would like to see her follow suit and reply with “Noun, verb, beauty queen” because, lets be honest, they really both have the same weight when judging the ability to lead the country.
Stealth edit:
Larry Kudlow of CNBC’s “Kudlow & Co.” asked her about the possibility of becoming McCain ticket mate.
Palin replied: “[A]s for that V.P. talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the V.P. does every day? I’m used to being very productive and working real hard in an administration. We want to make sure that that V.P .slot would be a fruitful type of position, especially for Alaskans and for the things that we’re trying to accomplish up here for the rest of the U.S., before I can even start addressing that question.”
